A triumph of messaging
The sneaky double-dog whistle of the Nord Stream attack
People say our rulers can’t pull off clever policies anymore, but when it comes to wordcelry they still have a few tricks up their sleeves.
Take the Nordstream attack, for example. The thing itself was probably not wise but the messaging surrounding the event was perfect.
Those who committed the act had to carry off something of a double dog whistle. First, they had to convince the plebs that it was the evil Ruskies who did the deed. Second, they had to signal to more important people that they themselves were, in fact, responsible.
The second goal was vital because the sabotage of the pipeline was not only intended to remove Russia’s bargaining power with Germany. It was also a threat: Look what we can do!
It is essential to the GAE that world leaders understand the truth about the attack as it showcases American technical capability and, even more so, their derring-do. A country strategizing against American interests will now be less tempted to assumed ‘they wouldn’t dare . . .’ (fill the ellipsis with whatever you like). America might dare. They’re a bit nuts at the moment.
China in particular will be weighing it up.
So how did they get out two messages simultaneously, for two different audiences?
The plebs
Propagandizing the plebs is extremely easy now that all mainstream media outlets are regime-compliant. A few officials put out the word that obviously it was the Russians just because and they all ran with it, across the GAE. The Japan Times, the Sydney Morning Herald, the BBC: they know how to take orders.
Most of the public know how to receive their updates, too. The groundwork has been laid for years. Russia stole the 2016 US election for Trump by hacking voting machines, then they arrested the democratically elected president of Russia, Navalny, and then they went and invaded Ukraine all of a sudden for no reason at all. Blew up a pipeline, you say? Of course they did! We’ve already been prepped to understand that there is no outrage to which Emmanuel Goldstein will not stoop. If a DeepFake of Putin eating a live puppy went viral, who would doubt it? He’s always doing stuff like that.
The social pressure behind media conformity remains startling. A lot of journos and editors go along with the party line simply because they’d be ostracized from polite society if they didn’t. I don’t fully understand how that system works.
Many of them know the truth, of course. See pre-attack reporting on the issue. An example of this reporting is included in the Further Reading section at the end of this post.
Also, sometimes a journo guiltily confesses the truth at the end of the article once the plebs have moved on to the latest Kardashian news. Take this one from Sorosmobile The Guardian:
First paragraph:
It may never be possible to determine definitively whether Monday’s underwater explosions at the two Nord Stream gas pipelines were the work of Russian sabotage, but it is certainly the way to bet.
Last paragraph:
Given Russia’s problems in Ukraine, the idea that Moscow would dare to step up by targeting western undersea pipelines and cables in the Baltic Sea and elsewhere remains hard to believe.
Can’t bury the lede any deeper than that.
The movers and shakers
The second, true message was tricker to pull off.
First, official US sources foreshadowed the attack before it occurred. They didn’t quite say “We’ll bomb the fucker” in quite so many words in order to maintain enough plausible deniability for any plebs who stumble across their earlier statements.
This time it wasn’t just a senior moment. Victoria Nuland, American’s Russianfinder General, said the same thing:
US officials also warned Europeans of a looming attack. I wonder how they got that intel, and why NATO was unable to use it to properly patrol and protect member states’ infrastructure.
Second, they had a semi-official source brag about the attack. It came from someone who those in the know know is in the know but those who aren’t, don’t. If you follow me.
The former Polish foreign minister, Radowlaw (Radek) Sikorski, went on to Twitter to say “Thank you, USA” with a photo of the bubbles. Radek is still a sitting member of the EU Parliament. His retirement from the Polish government gives him some plausible deniability about representing the official Polish line, just as former American generals are sometimes used as regime mouthpieces to release news and views that official rulers don’t want to directly own.
Further, Radek is married to Anna Applebaum, a staff writer for the Atlantic and all-round think tank creature.
From Wikipedia:
[She] created the Future of Syria and Future of Iran projects on future institutional change in those two countries . . .
There’s plenty more there you can enjoy reading for yourself. Long story short, she’s a NeoCon ghoul revolving through the usual stable of shadily-funded NGOs. The reader will understand the agenda she represents.
In this case, Radek speaks for her as a cat’s paw. He later deleted the tweet as an extra fig leaf over his shriveled dignity.
His message reached the right ears and world leaders knew the score. As intended.
In case anyone missed his tweet, the flagship organ of regime-compliant official Conservatism, the National Review, published a piece called Who Will Rid Me of This Meddlesome Pipeline?
Three leaks in two days? Wow, that’s a shame! Sounds like the pipeline’s falling apart and just won’t be a reliable way to get natural gas from Russia to Germany. I guess hopes of Germany and Russia eventually putting aside their differences over the invasion of Ukraine and reestablishing long-term German dependence on Russian energy just won’t happen for the foreseeable future. Just terrible luck for Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin, who clearly thought a cold winter with limited energy supplies would make Germany and other European countries come crawling back to the negotiating table.
Just about anyone could have cut the pipeline, but whoever it was, they wanted to make sure the Nord Stream pipelines would not be an option for a long time.
These days ordinary people don’t read the National Review because it’s been drivel since being taken over by the NeoCons, corporate welfare queens and the like. This makes it the perfect place to circumspectly broadcast information only to those who need to know.
GAE satrapies demonstrated that the message was received by protesting only mutely about the attack. If Germany really thought Russia had bombed their vital infrastructure, they’d be crying blue murder. Instead, they mumbled a few mild comments and then shuffled off in shame like Hu Jintao. Everyone’s been pretty quiet about it since.
If Japan, Singapore or Australia don’t back up the US in a conflict over Taiwan, they will cop it one way or another. These nations perhaps used to suspect it and now they know for sure.
Our rulers are not great at policymaking but when it comes to sophistry, marketing and targeted communication, they are the best. Right now you can bet they are patting themselves on the back and gloating about how cunningly they pulled it all off.
Further reading
An article from March, 2021: US Government publishes “warning” to NordStream 2 pipeline companies
“As multiple US administrations have made clear, this pipeline is a Russian geopolitical project intended to divide Europe and weaken European energy security. The sanctions legislation congress passed in 2019 and expanded in 2020 has significant support from a bipartisan congressional majority.
“The department reiterates its warning that any entity involved in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline risks US sanctions and should immediately abandon work on the pipeline.” ( . . . )
On Friday, Angela Merkel’s spokesperson Steffen Seibert told reporters the chancellor’s stance had not changed: “We reject extraterritorial sanctions as they have been threatened and imposed by the US.” ( . . . )
In the US, the Biden Administration sees the pipeline as working against two stated policy objectives. One of these involves the suppression of fossil fuel use, which contributed to the cancellation of America’s own Keystone XL pipeline earlier this year, and the other an opposition to spreading Russian influence, with the President saying that “the days of the United States rolling over in the face of Russia’s aggressive actions are over”.
A better ‘Russia did it’ theory
Regime mouthpiece theories about why Russia dunit are too embarrassing to repeat here.
I came up with a better theory, with two versions:
1. An elite, hardline Russian faction of the military/intelligence wing carried out the attack to prevent a German-led peace agreement ahead of a freezing winter, in order to push Putin to continue the war and expand its aims.
This line can’t be spruiked by GAE because it admits that Putin is moderate compared to some of those around him (and who may replace him if he gets Gadhafied).
2. An anti-Putin Russian faction carried out the attack in order to make peace unlikely, cause the nation to turn against Putin, and then seize power in his place.
This one can’t be pushed because it admits that Putin does not have complete control over his country.
There have been suggestions that some Russian factions have acted independently in the past, i.e. by poisoning rivals. Who knows for sure.
In any case, I put the chances of Russian involvement at <5%. Just trying to steelman the other side here.