That is what it means to lose a war
At the end of The Wind Rises, the creator of the Zero reflects that not a single aircraft he helped design had returned from the short-lived Japanese empire.
He concludes simply, “That is what it means to lose a war.”
He’s not merely talking about the air force, which he only got involved with out of an engineering dream to create something beautiful. He is referring to the total destruction of Japan and its occupation by the United States.
He is accepting facts. Any rights and wrong in the matter are now moot.
Here’s a map:
While the war went badly at first for Russia, their hopes of a quick and easy victory foiled by stronger-than-expected resistance, they have now settled into a grinding and effective war of attrition.
The numbers continue to fall their way. Ukraine is short of everything, including manpower. Russia creeps forward daily. They suffer terrible losses but Putin doesn’t care. He’ll take many more if required.
The Russian government is far more willing to suffer losses of human life than any Western country.
Thus, Russia has won the war.
The only question now is now long it takes to end, and how many more people on both sides must die.
I still see a lot of people online saying, the war can end by Russia handing back all the territory it took, including Crimea, and paying compensation.
That’s like a Japanese nationalist making similarly hubristic claims in 1945. “America can end this war today!” That’s not going to happen. There are no tools left to make it happen.
You might argue that Japan was to blame in their situation though, but it makes no difference who was right or wrong.
That is what it means to lose a war.
The realistic future paths are:
The war grinds on for more months or years, thousands more die, then the settlement ends up being Russia keeps ethnic Russian areas and Ukraine agrees not to join NATO.
A ceasefire now and the same settlement.
Some claim that this will only embolden Russia to make further attacks in the future.
First, this is unrealistic. Russia had its specific war aims and those have been largely achieved. It isn’t randomly seizing as much living space as it can because it thinks its country is too small.
Second, even if, what are you going to do about it? What’s your alternative to 1 and 2 above, now that you understand Russia is not going to retreat and pay compensation?
That is what it means to lose a war.
WWII has poisoned people’s minds with the idea that the west always wins and imposes a just peace. That is not true. We lose all the time, then quickly chuck the entire sad saga down the memory hole. Bet you haven’t thought about that Afghanistan withdrawal for a while. Remember the chaos, the bomb that went off killing US soldiers?
Utter defeat.
Thankfully, those who don’t understand what it means to lose a war are no longer in charge. Whether it takes days or months, there will be a peace agreement and members of the western alliance will forget it ever happened, instead finding some new cause to pose and posture about.
I feel for soldiers on both sides who are hearing news of possible peace talks, wondering if they’ll last long enough to see their families again.
Most of those making the decisions don’t care about them at all. Thankfully, it seems a few now do.
If you don’t thnk this would be a just or lasting peace, well, tough titties. It’s that or thousands of your countrymen dead and a possible nuclear confrontation. And those things won’t happen, because tough talking western leaders have elections to win and fickle voters suddenly lose all their pious enthusiasm for a just war when the flag-draped boxes start returning.
It’s over, right or wrong.
That is what it means to lose a war.